Transgender Americans prepare for another Trump presidency

After contemplating which election night watch party to attend, Cassandra Wong found herself watching MSNBC on a projector, surrounded by six friends. By the time she arrived, former President Donald Trump was leading Vice President Kamala Harris with 101 electoral votes to 49.

The gathering consisted almost entirely of transgender people, including Wong, a 43-year-old transgender woman. People would walk into the party in Austin, Texas, see Trump’s red bar quickly inching towards the 270 electoral votes necessary to win while Kamala’s seemingly static blue bar lags behind, and promptly exit. After an hour, Wong made her way home.

”It was not the environment that I was hoping for; it wasn’t going the way I wanted. So I went home to be sad,” Wong said. “I woke up the next day, Trump was the president, and now we’re doomed.”

Wong had been hopeful for this year's election. She was almost certain Harris would win. Now, she and many others fear the implications that another Trump presidency could have on the transgender community".

Sebastian Liafsha, a 22-year-old transgender man from South Carolina, said he hadn’t even considered the possibility of a Trump victory. He was even more shocked to wake up the next morning and learn that not only had Trump won, but the Senate and House of Representatives were also leaning toward a Republican majority.

“Obviously, we know what Trump’s and the Republicans' stance toward trans issues is. Laws can change, and that’s a concern going forward with the results of the election. People will take an inch, even if it’s an awful inch, and run it a mile,” said Liafsha.

As Liafsha said, the Republican party has made their stance on trans issues clear. The Trump campaign and other Republican candidates often turned to advertisements to highlight their negative views and attack the Democrats support of the trans community.

In October, Wong attended a trans community meetup at a barbecue restaurant. “It’s Texas, of course we were getting barbecue at a sports bar,” she joked.

Looking up between bites of Austin’s specialty cuisine, it seemed every commercial on the many surrounding screens was about transgender people.

“We’re sick of seeing it. What is the problem with us? I joked that I had an awesome Halloween costume, I didn’t even have to dress up. I’m the scariest thing out there, according to the Republicans,” Wong said.

Trump and other Republican candidates often relied on advertisements to emphasize their opposition to trans issues and attack Democratic support of the trans community.

One ad attacked Harris for her support of incarcerated people's ability to receive gender-affirming care and the right for trans athletes to compete as the gender they identify with. The ad concludes with the phrase, “Kamala is for they/them, President Trump is for you.”

The video below takes a deeper dive into the content of the Trump campaign's advertisements.

By October 9, Trump and other Republican groups had spent over $21 million on anti-LGBTQ television ads this campaign cycle, AdImpact told ABC News. While it may have been more prevalent in candidate-focused races, the rhetoric and misinformation even trickled down to the promotion of ballot measures.

Natalie Kurtz, a 35-year-old transgender woman from St. Louis, Missouri, had a similar experience to Wong. Nearly every day, Kurtz drove past anti-trans ads displayed throughout her city, but not without her transgender flag proudly displayed on the car.

The billboards Kurtz saw were in opposition to an amendment on the Missouri ballot that directly tackled the issue of reproductive rights in the state. Although the amendment had nothing to do with transgender rights, the billboards continuously claimed that Amendment 3 would allow for taxpayer-funded “Transgender Surgery.”

The use of the transgender community as a political target is nothing new, however, the amount of money dedicated to these ads this election cycle is unprecedented. The most widespread ad, “Kamala is for they/them,” was released and promoted after a September Gallup poll found transgender rights ranked last of 22 issues most important to voters.

The transgender community has already seen some social and cultural effects of misinformation campaigns. Many are concerned about what the future holds for them if Republicans continue to use trans identities as political pawns.

Ellie Rose, a 26-year-old transgender woman from Minneapolis, is fearful that the effects of anti-trans misinformation may be irreversible for many Americans.

“It's scary, because what’s the tipping point where enough people are too far gone, plus enough people just buy into some dumb propaganda? It feels like we can’t come back,” Rose said.

Rose was a teacher for many years, but has since found herself unemployed. This spring she was offered a job in juvenile corrections, a line of work that she is highly interested in. She had wanted to continue working with children and thought it would be a rewarding path, but ultimately, her identity led her to decline the offer.

“I was thinking, you know, I’m a trans woman. Why would it be a safe place for me? Because school definitely wasn’t,” she said.

During her time as a teacher, Rose was harassed by students for being transgender.

“I taught in St. Paul, and even there the anti-trans rhetoric from students was horrifying,” she said.

Rose believes the normalization and increased focus on anti-trans language throughout the country may have contributed to the students' behavior.

“You have parents who are afraid of their kids turning trans. You’re going to have kids going back in the closet. Kids are going to die because of this,” Rose said.

Two years ago, a student of hers committed suicide as a result of the transphobic bullying they endured.

Sebastian Liafsha outside the women's dressing room at his high school in South Carolina. (Courtesy of Heather Liafsha)

Along with cultural shifts, the promotion of anti-trans rhetoric has led to broader support for harmful legislation across many states. In South Carolina, Liafsha has witnessed firsthand the legislative shift against transgender rights since he came out during Trump’s first term.

“I had top surgery, I went on testosterone, I did blockers. I did all of that while I was a minor. So everything that I did to transition in my youth cannot be done anywhere in the state already,” said Liafsha.

He worries about the spread of laws like the one passed in Odessa, Texas last month. The law bans transgender individuals from using bathrooms and other public spaces that align with their gender identity. This law imposes a fine of up to $500 and allows alleged victims to sue for further damages of up to $10,000 in civil court.

Liafsha and Wong both stated that the law feels like the city is putting a bounty on transgender people in the community by allowing those who report violations to be ‘rewarded’ by the justice system.

“I think it’s only going to spread like a wildfire, with more states and cities feeling confident they can do that and get away with it. Especially with an all red government now,” Liafsha said.

This map shows the state of anti-trans bans that are in effect thoroughout the U.S. States in red have active restrictions, while those in grey do not. The data is pulled from an April 2024 study conducted by the Williams Institute at UCLA. The study focused on four types of bans for transgender minors in each state: gender-affirming care, sports participation, bathroom access and gender-affirming pronouns.

Due to these fears, many in the trans community are beginning to take precautions and prepare for what the next four years could bring.

Anne Blaire, a 37-year-old mother in rural Georgia with a transgender son, has begun weighing the options for potential next steps after the election.

“It’s like preparing for a hurricane. You don’t want to get hit, but you need to stock up your water anyway,” she said.

In the days following Trump’s win, Blaire had multiple family members reach out to her asking if she needed to send her son to live with them in California. Although Blaire and her family are not able to move out of Georgia at this time, she said they are grateful to have options in case their environment becomes too hostile.

Tina Siroky rockclimbing in her home state of Ohio. She belongs to a group of transgender individuals who have taken up climbing as a community-building activity. (Courtesy of Tina Siroky)

In 2022, the U.S. Trans Survey found that out of 92,000 respondents, nearly half had considered moving to a different state because of the laws considered or passed by their state government. 5% had actually taken the action and moved.

Tina Siroky, a 37-year-old transgender woman from Ohio, said that while moving may seem like the easiest option, it’s incredibly difficult for most people to actually do. Logistically, it’s complicated: switching banks, changing homes, job hunting, and so on. But the emotional toll is even more significant.

“I’ve lived here for more than ten years and my life is here. I got married here…Do I go someplace and have Ohio lose out on my vote? Queer kids are still gonna grow up here, and queer kids still need to see me,” Siroky said.

Another precaution some people are taking, including Liafsha, is stockpiling gender-affirming medications, such as testosterone and estrogen.

“I’ve got more testosterone than I’m supposed to. If they were to limit access it would give me time…for instance if my pharmacist won’t give me anymore but I don’t want to start medically detransitioning.” Liafsha said.

Gender-affirming care and transitioning has saved the lives of many transgender people. A 2015 Harvard study found that gender-affirming surgeries were associated with a 44% decrease in suicidal ideation compared to those who wanted it but were not able to.

Kurtz, despite being out of the closet for two years and already having medically transitioned said she also has begun talking to her doctor about getting extra estrogen just in case.

“Detransitioning, it would kill me. I’d put myself into such a depression I’d probably kill myself or just drink myself to death,” she said.

Many in the trans community have also begun focusing on getting all of their legal documentation updated and organized. This includes name and gender changes on essential documents such as passports and birth certificates.

The day after the election, Kurtz went to Walgreens to update her passport photo. She said there was a line around the block.

For Tegan Caldwell, a 40-year-old transgender woman from Michigan, changing her documents was one of the first things she did after coming out of the closet.

“My birth certificate has Tegan on it. Everything says female: my ID, gender marker, social security card, everything,” she said. “My biggest fear is they would try to pull some big sweeping legislation to make transitional health care illegal and invalidate my documents.”

Another option for people in environments that feel unsafe to members of the trans community is “going stealth”. For trans individuals, going stealth means being more cautious about who is aware of their gender identity by essentially going back into the closet. This is something Liafsha has considered.

“I don't know who you are, and I don't know what you think about trans people, or if you've ever met a trans person,” Liafsha said. “So, it's the decision to no longer say anything about that, and to say, ‘You know what, I'm just a normal guy.’”

Liafsha’s mom raised an eyebrow when he said this and added with a grin, “I don’t know if he could go stealth, he can’t keep his mouth shut.”

Wong said that it is difficult to weigh the potential dangers associated with being open about her identity with the mental toll of going back in the closet.

“I couldn’t go back. I’m willing to go down fighting rather than detransition or go back in the closet,” she said.

While no one can predict what the next four years will bring, with the increased focus on trans issues and the rise of anti-trans rhetoric weaponized throughout the election cycle, many in the trans community are preparing for the worst.

In the midst of the “doom and gloom” in the trans community right now, Liafsha emphasized the importance of keeping the queer community close and remembering that it isn’t going anywhere.

“You can get rid of all the trans and LGBT people in the world and they'll just keep coming back. We're an inherent percentage of the population. So, there's no point in bashing it down or diminishing it,” he said.